CommonPrejudice NFL

Week Seven - Lean and Mean

Once again I have little time for idle chit chat. Or perhaps it is because I'm still hurting over the 4-7-2 record we put up last week. I had to let go an entire department here at Commonprejudice and more downsizing may be on the way. Obviously things can't continue like this. We need to become a lean mean organization. No more funny business. On to the picks.

Baltimore -3 @ Buffalo
The Bills are rested after their bye following their collapse of epic proportions. Baltimore hasn't played a soul.
Bills

NYJets +6 @ Cincinnati
Holy crap do I ever not like giving away six points with the Bengals. But.......gotta do it.
Bengals

Minnesota +9.5 @ Dallas
Apparently the Vikings have a running back that is making a bit of splash.

The Silly Nannies are set for a let down game. Yo Adrian runs for at least a buck fifty.
Vikings

Tampa  Bay +2.5 @ Detroit
Ok, if I were a betting man I would say that you absolutely must bet on the Lions for one very simple reason. I'm finally taking the Bucs.
Bucs

New England +16.5 @ Miami
Ya know I am really starting to dislike this Patriots team and their late game F.U. touchdowns (except, of course, against the Silly Nannies).  Certainly there were a few dillusional writers and fans that proclaimed past victories as tainted, but the vast majority simply called it as it was; the Patriots and Bellichek cheated and deserved the punishment they got. Of course the Super Bowls weren't tainted (In fact I believe the rule regarding filming didn't even come into existence until after at least two of their victories. But that is what makes it all the more sleazy. They didn't even need it and now they are carrying around a grudge like everyone regards their victories as less than authentic. Boo-fucking-hoo. Can you imagine a Gibbs team rubbing it in that way. Neither can I. Then again he wouldn't cheat in the first place.

I'm sure most have seen this video by now, but now more than ever this is what I think of when I think of a Patriots fan.

That all said, you don't pick who you like, you pick who is going to win.
Patriots

Atlanta +9 @ New Orleans
Nine is a lot for the Saints to cover. Reluctantly
Saints

San Francisco +9.5 @ New York Giants
All of the sudden the G-Girls (the term is back) are the talk of the league. I don't buy it.
Niners

Kansas City +2.5 @ Oakland
Dante is not the man.
Chiefs

Chicago +5 @ Philadelphia
Five points seems like a lot for the Eagles
Bears

Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Denver
Lots of people like the upset here. I'm going with the Steelers
Steelers

St. Louis +9 @ Seattle
Bulger is back. I look for the big upset here. That is, the Rams cover
Rams

Tennessee -1.5 @ Houston
Unsure who is starting for the Titans at qb. Houston has Johnson back. Let's go with the Texans

Arizona +8.5 @ Washington
This line has gone up a point and half since it opened (if I were a gambler I would probably start to consider those early lines. if ...)
Redskins

Monday
Indianapolis -3 @ Jacksonville
This should be a great game. Indy has played some very close games unlike the Pats. Jags pull this out.
Jaguars

(Note: Season totals need to be updated, which will be done soon. This afternoon, though, I have to fly to Turkey to ease tensions between them and the Iraqi Kurds)

Alright sportsfans. Week Six. We are just hovering above the .500 mark and - well let's just say certain analysts here around the CommonPrejudice's home office should probably be going over their resumes during their spare time. They very well may need them soon.

So we're a little pressed for time this week, with all work we were doing for the Nobel Committee during the selection of the Nobel Peace Prize so let's get right to the picks, shall we.

Carolina +4 at Arizona
Go with the quarterback who isn't quite old enough to get a discount on his monthly bus pass.
Cardinals
St.Louis +9.5  at Baltimore
Getting nine and half points against a Baltimore team that can't score touchdown, hell I'd go with the Rams even if they had a Gus Frerotte starting on the road .. uhhh, guess I'm kinda stuck now
Rams
Minnesota +5 at Chicago
I like the Bears to win this one with a couple of scores on defense.
Bears
Cincinnati -3 at Kansas City
This is an interesting one - it's the classic, old Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory... yes a true classic

Chiefs

Miami +4.5 @ Cleveland
Cleveland wins this one by three
Dolphins

Washington (+3) at GB

Hmm... uhhh.. I guess we'll go with the Skins.

Unfortunately we've been called away to Burma to deal with the situation there so we will have to rattle off the rest of the picks.

Houston (+6.5) at Jacksonville
Texans
New England -5.5 at Dallas
Patriots
Philadelphia (-3) at Jets
Eagles
Oakland (+9.5) at San Diego
Raiders
New Orleans +6.5 at Seattle
Saints
Tennessee (+3) at Tampa Bay
Titans
Monday
New York Giants  (-3.5) at  Atlanta
Falcons

You Got That Right

Former Silly Nanny and current MSNBC contributor Jay Novacek:

The Redskins are a dangerous team and one I expect to beat Dallas later this season.

I like him better now.

Brag Post

Inexplicably we lost. Dagger at PostGameHeroes had his magic dart board working and managed to randomly select 9 correct games while we only could manage a 7-7 record. So in order to fulfill our contractual obligations here is his post:
-------

GAME OVER!….

The second I posted my picks, I knew it was a wrap for you clowns, sort of like how Manny knew it was a wrap for the Angels the second he made contact in the bottom of the 9th. Consider this post my "strut" to first base. Know that as I write this, I am staring at my screen with my arms raised with all my PGH friends watching over my shoulder with eyes wide open and mouths agape. Right now, Frank Thomas is somewhere looking down at his notes speechless (what a surprise!).

My advice to the other bloggers in this so-called competition, STEP YOUR GAME UP!  Curly R and Common Prejudice , you guys need to fine tune your methods.   Hogs Haven you need to stop using any thought altogether.  You are better off picking blindly.

On to something that baffles me: Redskins bloggers that take their win against the Lions seriously, bloggers that try to read too much into last week's win. Believe me, Sunday's win says nothing about your team (other than that they are extremely inconsistent) and nothing about how they will perform in weeks to come. The Skins are going to disappoint you this week, and if not this week, then next. Don't you know that a win against a "good" team in the NFC is not the same as a "good" win (and whoever said the Lions were a "good" team)? Did we not watch the Lions get demolished by a Schizophrenic Eagles squad recently?

It pains me to say it, but since joining the blogosphere, I have learned that Skins fans are some of the smartest fans the NFL has, but when their own team is involved, all logic and common sense gets thrown out the window. How about having some perspective for once…? Year after year we see this during the preseason…Washington signs a few Free Agents and all of a sudden you're headed to the Super Bowl. You start the season 2-0 once in a blue moon and local TV, Radio, and Blogs are proclaiming a "return to prominence". You lose to the Giants and all of a sudden you all hate Clinton Portis, Gibbs has one foot out the door, the Al Saunders offense sucks, and the season is all but lost. Act like you've been there before Redskin Nation. The season is a marathon, not a sprint.

Why not waste your time blogging about great teams and a great conference: the AFC. The Steelers just dismantled one of the few "contenders" the NFC has to offer, while the lowly Bills exposed, almost embarrassed, the NFC's best option of bringing the Super Bowl back to the conference.

Lets bottom line this post: If the Skins go 8-8, does it matter? If the Skins make it the playoffs, does it matter? No, cause you and I, Skins fan or not, both know the Skins are who we thought they were. Save your words for something that is worth arguing.

Relaxing and Enjoying a Silly Nannies Comeback Victory

Let's try to imagine a world where you could lay down five or ten dollars online at about ten to one or so, you know, just to make the Monday night game interesting.

Imagine say, the over/under was 45 and the odds of Buff.... the underdog winning outright were about four and a half to one, the combo making the ten to one on the parlay. So, in this this fantasy game, the underdog would be winning by 8 with the total score at 40 (you took the over) with two minutes left. So you would need Dall.. uhhh, the evil enemy team ..to score a td and miss the two point to win this imaginary bet. And miraculously they score with 20 seconds left and then miss the two point. 24-22 Good guys up (total score 46). You would certainly celebrate at this point, wouldn't you? Then the Cowb...the evil enemy team recovers the onside kick! Then they complete it to the 20 and ground the ball with one second left. But a last second reversal of fortune! The play would be overturned on the replay!!  So then they would set the clock back to 13 seconds. Then a completion to the 43. 7 seconds left. Then the entire world would know that the next pass would be A 7 YARD OUT to the sidelines to stop the clock.. And yes that pass would be, in the story, complete to the 35. And with one second left Dallas (ok I said it) kicks the winning goal to ruin the parlay and win the game.... Of course! ! Of course you'd mutter in disgust. .... Wait, a time out called, he would have to kick the 53 yarder again. Could you believe such a story? But, yes, indeed, in this version, the good guys lose out again. The second kick sails through. Clearly this would mean there are evil forces at work in this universe of which we have very little understanding.

(Bonus Kick in the Gut: The winning team also would happen to be the division rival of your team and the team you hate the most in all of football ..... Oh, c'mon,you're just making this shit up)

We're on a Mission from God (and the picks)

One angle of what Peter King calls the game of the week , the Lions/Redskins game, doesn't seem to be getting enough play. Bill Simmons notes:

There's a higher power working for these guys, and that's not even a joke: David Fleming's ESPN The Magazine feature about Jon Kitna contained the follow nugget: "Since [Kitna] signed a four-year, $11.5 million deal in March 2006, about 20 Lions have given their lives to Christ."

I thought that number seemed startlingly high, but just to make sure, I called my buddy House to see how many guesses he would make before he reached "20." He started out by guessing three, then five, then seven. Then he yelled, "You're lying!" Then he made four more guesses before getting to "15" and giving up. When I told him the answer, he screamed, "Whaaaaaat??? Jon Kitna needs to be stopped!"

Last night I tried the same experiment and I indeed received the same 3 or 4 then 6 or 7 with the eventual give up. Here's another bit from the Fleming article.

Every Detroit practice now ends with about 30 percent of the team gathering for a prayer, followed by the players shouting, "One, two, three ... JESUS!"

With risk of offending I do have to say that smashing people senseless on a grass field marked with numbers in order to cross an arbitrary line to score "points" really is the lord's work.

There is, though, the occasional conflict in the Lions locker room. Nevertheless Kitna deals with it.

...Walking into the Lions' locker room a few days before the Vikings game, Kitna was greeted by silence. The Lions have three iPod docks that plug into their speaker system. But when someone began blasting Christian music, a tense standoff ensued. It was noted, loudly, that a majority of people in the room didn't want to listen to God rock. And so the speakers remained mute until Kitna arrived. "Everyone's music should be heard," he said, "or no one's." The Christian rock was resurrected, followed by a heavy dose of hip-hop.

God rock was resurrected. Sounds like the Lions really have it together. What can the Redskins possibly do to counter this?

Well, as Ben at Curly R has noted before, starting on the offensive line is none other than the eight ball, David Puddy  uhh Todd Wade.

We simply have Wade come out for the coin toss with his helmet on and just as he shakes hands with Kitna he pulls off his helmet to reveal:

Kitna goes into convulsions. Skins win.

------

In Dr.Z's mailbag column this week one story of his struck me as particularly amusing.

Lance Coffee of Norcross, Ga. He said that I mentioned zany stunts the writers would pull in the old days. What stunts? Let's hear one.

When I was a Jets beat man, Weeb Ewbank had a routine for his Wednesday press conferences. The first thing he would do would be to step up to the podium, adjust his glasses and read the injury report, as given to him by Jeff Snedeker, the trainer. One day we managed to shortstop it and substitute one of our own. So up stepped Weeb, with the mikes turned on and the cameras rolling. He adjusted his glasses and began:

"John Ebersole -- pulled eye. Mark Lomas -- worms." Pause. "What the hell is this thing?"

Mark Lomas -- worms. rotfl.

----

So just picks this week. I'll try and remain modest after the thrashing I gave my fellow bloggers last week.

Carolina +3 at New Orleans
Saints
Jacksonville -2 at Kansas City
Jaguars
Atlanta +8 at Tennessee
Falcons
Miami +5.5 at Houston
Dolphins
Seattle +6 at Pittsburgh
Steelers
Cleveland +16.5 at New England
Patriots
Arizona -3.5 at St.Louis
Cardinals
Jets +3.5 at Giants
Jets
Tampa Bay +9.5 at Indianapolis
Bucs
San Diego +1 at Denver
Broncos
Baltimore -3 at San Francisco
49ers
Detroit +3.5 at Washington
Skins
Chicago +3 at Green Bay
Packers
Dallas +10 at Buffalo
Silly Nannies

Season Totals
Curly R (1)  31-25-6 or 55%
PostGameHeroes (1) 30-26-6 or 53%
CP  30-26-6 or 53%
(VF  26-30-6 46%)
Hogs Haven 24-32-6 or 43%

We Win

With the Skins off this past week we here at CommonPrejudice had the necessary resolve and tranquility to focus our energy, hone our skills and come through with a 10-4 record this past week to literally mop the floor with those boys at CurlyR, Postgameheroes and Hogs Haven.

We also got to go to the Dolphins/Raiders game. (Not often there is a delay in football but the game started a half hour late due to lightning which meant our staff had a nice buzz come game time due to a giant Presidente or two)

And if gambling were legal we also would have been moderately successful there too.

So bring on the Lions.
(Links to the brag post on the other sites are here, here and here)

And here is a little bonus. During the Monday night Skins/Eagles game one of the owners of the bar had to wear a Redskins t-shirt of mine because as a Dolphins fan he lost a bet to me the previous week. We tricked him into moving into an area of the bar where a photo just had to be taken. At the last moment he tried to cover up but to no avail.

Sweet.

Week 4 of the Sport of Picking NFL DeathBlogs

It was a doubly bitter pill to swallow last week. First the Skins lose in the dying seconds, then we here at CP fall below the .500 mark after a dismal 4-9-3 result picking the games. Yes, that does mean that you are better off flipping a coin. No, we are not proud of this.

[Update: the other picks - Postgameheroes, Curly R, Hogs Haven. I see that at Hogs Haven they also bring up the coin flip. To answer the question posed, in fact a coin flip would indeed fail less dramatically]

Regarding the Redskins loss; it's easy to harp on the last drive - in Gibb's fourth year back this continuing problem of time mismanagement and confusion at the end of halfs and games is beyond troubling - but the team did thoroughly deserve the loss after that outright collapse in the second half. Greg Cote (surprisingly) at the Miami Herald puts it quite well.

Want to be considered a playoff contender? Don't blow a big lead at home and lose to the Giants.

No kidding. While after that loss a bye week isn't the worst thing. Nevertheless, it's going to a long haul afterwards with no break. If the Skins are to be a serious contender this season you have to believe that the next game versus Detroit at home is critical. There is no way they can lose two games at home back to back against underwhelming opponents like the Giants and Lions.

One last thing. In the first three weeks I have chosen a cinch, a guarantee and, last week, I threw up the lock. The result, 3 pushes. What does that mean? Can I get some odds on calling a push?

Today the picks come fast and furious. I feel superficial, one sentence comments really offer the best insight.

Houston -3 at Atlanta
In a week of 9, count'em 9, home dogs, here's the first one we're going to call.
Falcons

NY Jets -3.5 at Buffalo
I'm really leaning toward Buffalo, but I can't pull the trigger on a team with a rookie qb drafted in the third round starting.
Jets

Baltimore -4 at Cleveland
I'll say Cleveland keeps it real close.
Browns

St.Louis  +13 at Dallas
Silly Nannies Big. Let's just move on quickly.

Chicago -3  at Detroit
Can Brian Griese win a shoot-out? Does Britney miss a lot of lunches?

Lions

Oakland +4 at Miami
Why are the Raiders getting four points?

Raiders

Green Bay -1.5  at Minnesota
Week four is the last week I let preseason prejudices affect my choices. The Pack 4-0?
Vikings

Seattle -2 at San Francisco
Is Seattle a good team or not?
Seahawks

Tampa Bay +3 at Carolina
Eventually I will have to pick the Bucs I suppose.
Panthers

Denver +9.5  at Indianapolis
A lot of points to cover.
Colts

Pittsburgh -6 at Arizona
Cards


Kansas City +11.5 at San Diego
San Diego continues to considered one of the elite. But at 1-2 can you give eleven and a half points?
Chiefs

Philadelphia -3  at NY Giants
We like to think we are fair here at CP so in the spirit of such fairness, as the Giants beat the Skins last week we will try to refrain from calling them the G-Girls for the next while. No promises though.
Eagles

New England -7 at Cincinnati
This is the best line you will get on the Pats for the rest of the year. You have to be jumping all over this number.

Patriots

Season Totals
PostGameHeroes (1) 22-20-6 or  52%
Curly R (1) 22-20-6 or 52%
(VF  22-20-6 52%)
Coin Flippers  20-22-6 or 47%
Hogs Haven 15-27-6 or 36%

Boast Post 2 (From Curly R)

If you don't get help with us get help somewhere

Are you down? Is your gameday preparation unfulfilling? Do you yearn for the traditions of a real football team, one with more history than your 95 Corolla?

Then you might be a Ravens fan. And you're not alone.

It's called desperate fan syndrome or DFS and it affects nearly every Ravens fan. Warning signs include living in the hole between Washington and Philadelphia and symptoms include flaccid routines, weak stream of cheering and incomplete emptying of lungs on third down.

Now there's help. It's called a real football team and two out of three Ravens fans that tried it stayed with it for more than a season. Side effects are mild and include respect for history, gameday fulfillment and a sense of community. Very rarely a serious side effect known as starting a blog can occur, if this occurs seek help immediately.

Ask Mel Kiper if a real football team is right for you.

Ravens fan from here.

(Winner of Blog Pick-off,  Ben from CurlyR)

Week 3 of the NFL Blog Sport Death Pick

It's an exciting week here at CommonPrejudiceNFL. We have decided on our new slogan (even if we had to steal it):

Last week myself and my galactic team of analysts finished at 8-7-1, putting us in a tie with Skin Patrol at Hog Haven. So the brag post carries over. This week up for the grabs is the opportunity to be twice as obnoxious.

It does seem that the more I play up the pick the less likely the pick. So obviously the key to determining my best picks is simply to read between the lines. Now that everything is clear let us begin.

Indianapolis at -6 at Houston
The easy upset call goes sour.
Colts

San Diego -5 at Green Bay
Bust out game for the Chargers. Favre throws 3 interceptions.
Chargers

Minnesota +2.5 at Kansas Chiefs
Back and forth on this one. Like the upset possibility certainly, as KC may be the worst team in the league. But then an already weakened QB situation has Holcomb starting. At home I'll go with the Chiefs.
Chiefs

Detroit  +6 at Philadelphia

Not Dead Yet?
I think they are.
Lions

Buffalo -16.5 at New England
Looking at this match-up one can't help but feel a little queasy. 

Patriots (That's right. Buffalo is favored by 16.5. And I like NE to cover that spread. That why we are the experts, in other words, correction +16.5, thanks Ben.)

Miami +3 at Jets
Ok, the cinches and guarantees have led me to two pushes. So it's time for the lock.

Jets

San Francisco +9 at Pittsburgh
Nice schedule the Steelers have to start with. Browns, Bills, Niners to go 3-0. But will they cover? After several conference calls, dozens of faxes and emails we have determined that, no, in fact, they won't.
Niners

Arizona +7.5 at Baltimore
No way. It's too many points I tell you.

Cardinals

Rams +4 at Tampa Bay
I'll be glad when the bye week starts and they'll be fewer games to pick.
Rams

Jacksonville +3 at Denver
I think last week I may have mentioned something to the effect that Denver could win by 30. You see, here at CommonPrejudice we have such a talent to see into the future that occasionally we see two weeks ahead.
Denver

Cincinnati +3.5 at Seattle
I'm kinda thinking this Bengals team may not be so hot.
Seahwaks

Cleveland +3 at Oakland
How is this for chutzpa? Even after last week's explosion for Cleveland I am still going to call this game the:

Raiders

Carolina -3.5 at Atlanta
Bet the house. (it won't be worth much soon anyway)
Carolina

New York G-Girls +3.5 (here too I was wrong. I've fired my copy editor) at Skins
Easy now. No sudden movements. This one should be easy. Almost too easy.
Skins

Dallas Silly Nannies +3 at Chicago
Forgive me lord I have sinned. I have chosen the Silly Nannies three straight weeks.

Silly Nannies

Monday

Tennessee (-4) at New Orleans
No worries for those on the east coast. You will get to bed early.
Saints

Last Week 8-7-1

This week's picks
PostGameHeroes
Curly R
Hogs Haven

Season Totals
PostGameHeroes 16-13-3 55%
CommonPrejudice 16-13-3 55%
Curly R 15-4-3 51%
(Viking Fan 15-14-3 51%)
Hog Haven 12-17-3 41%

(Picks V.F. Bal Buf Det Ind NYJ Min SD Pit TB Cin Cle Jkv Car NYG Chi NO)