Episode 8 - Changes

It's been a rough week here at C.P. 5-9 were the disheartening totals. So, undeniably changes had to be made. The following image pretty much captures the scene here for most of the week.

You get the idea. So now after the vast staff reduction the board members have come up with a short term plan. There has been one bit of glory in our two week fiasco of incompetence and ineptitude. Two weeks ago, we correctly went with the Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory and won easily with Kansas City. (Based on a theory from the Sports Guy) While it seems you can find a couple of games each week that more or less fit the theory, we have decided to take it one step farther to cover all the games. While we will still use the Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory when it applies, on the other games we will attempt to best determine which way Vegas is leaning according to the line movement and the percentage bet on each team during the week. To sum it up, we're going with Vegas, baby.

[Note most of the comments regard tracking the spread from Monday through Thursday night. Some updates were made Friday afternoon when it seemed relevant. All updates were made before the initial posting. The tracking of the spread and percentage bet on each team can be found here]

Cleveland -3 at St. Louis
73% going with the Browns now, well above 50 almost the entire time while the line doesn't move.
Rams (I hate this theory already)

Detroit +5 at Chicago
Between 60 and 70% have been betting Bears, line hasn't moved. Not a great indicator but I will go the way Vegas is leaning. Friday update. Now it's down to 58% betting Bears with no line movement. I'm rethinking this. Money is drifting away from the Bears but the line stays the same. Really speculating here, but let's say Vegas doesn't mind the money slowing on the Bears even if it is still above 50%.
Lions Bears

Indianapolis -6.5 at Carolina
The line has moved up a half a point, but that was before betting opened. Since then 95/96% have been betting on Indy. Obviously Vegas is comfortable with that.
Panthers

NY G-Girls -9.5  at Miami
Without a doubt the Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory Game Two.

Giants opened at ten. Went down to 9.5 right away, yes down a half a point, while since almost the beginning well above 90% have been betting Giants (92% currently). Vegas loves Miami.
Dolphins

Oakland +7.5 at Tennessee
Here the line has gone from 9 to 7.5 with the percentage betting on Tennessee going down slowly from high 70's to low 60s. But the spread went from 9 to 7 immediately, then back to nine where it stayed while 65% approximately bet on the Titans. Then all of the sudden the line jumps back to 7.5. Excuse the real football talk, but was there an injury announced around 2 o'clock today(thursday)? Overall though a tough one to read, I'd say at first Vegas wanted less people to bet on the Titans, accomplished that and were happy to let it ride. Then a sudden change of heart, though it is still too early to see what the betting trend will be now.  This one needs another day, though it seems the Titans are the pick.
Update Friday afternoon: A little more football talk. Vince Young is in fact playing yet the percentage betting on the Titans has fallen to 51%. The line going back down to 7.5 didn't make more people bet on the Titans, in fact less are. The quick move back down to 7.5 would seem to indicate that Vegas didn't want that to happen. So very hesitantly I take the Raiders (ie Vegas as well as the betting trend)

Philadelphia  -1 at Minnesota
Line hasn't moved. Despite this betting trend has shifted 50-60% Minny in the beginning to a couple of days of 55% Philly. A true pick'em.  If betting were legal this would be one to stay away from. Because I have to pick one, let's say that Vegas doesn't mind money gravitating to Philly and take the Vikings.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Cincinnati
Interesting one here. Initially 90% bet on the Steelers, since then it has been a steady high 60's. The line jumped from -1 before betting to -3.5 as the bets started being tracked. It went another half a point to 4 for a couple of days - as the betting was in the low 70's for Pitt. Now it was dropped a half a point to 3.5 again. Vegas seemed a little worried that too much was, or would, go down on Pitt. There are Ok with it at 65% but that isn't a high percentage for a team that should be a lot better than the Bengals. A long story short - Vegas isn't showing confidence in the Bengals covering the spread. Steelers.

Buffalo +3 at NY Jets
Line hasn't moved. Money started out immediately on the Jets then has fallen to high 30's, low 40s the last couple of days. With almost 70% first going the Jets way for the first evening then by the following morning dropping to 35% and staying there, you would have to think Vegas is comfortable with the turn of events. Jets

Houston +10 at San Diego

No Line movement. 80% going with the Chargers since opening. Go with Vegas baby. Texans

(While this is all in fun, CommonPrejudice would like to salute those battling the brutal fires in the San Diego region)

POST POSTING UPDATE: Apparently the line reverts to a pick'em if the time and place is in doubt, which it has been. However the news has now come out that the game will be played in San Diego at the regular hour. I imagine by tonight the line will be reposted. While all kinds of intangibles are now in play, we will stick with the Texans pick at +10.

Jacksonville +4 at Tampa Bay

A little line movement mostly between 4.5 and 4. Betting pattern is constant at 55% betting on TB. The line has now gone to 3.5 after a long time at 4, maybe trying to draw some more Bucs money. Jaguars

New Orleans -3 at San Francisco
Money has mostly gone down on New Orleans (mid 70%). Line hasn't moved (at least according to the graph - there seems to be a misprint on the main page saying -1). So this is a poor bettor's OGTMBTGWVWTDMT8OTPABOWT.
Niners

Washington -16.5 at New England
The public is betting around 70% on average on the Pats (very low for them). As of late it has dropped into the sixties. The line has gone up a half a point, meaning Vegas didn't really like so much going on the Pats. Which would mean that the Going with Vegas theory calls for the Pats.
AYFKM. Yes I am taking the Skins. This theory can't be a rule without an exception.

Green Bay +3  at Denver (Monday)
Opened at +1. Moved right away to +3 before betting. The betting trend has gone early towards the Broncos in the high sixties but less than 24 hours later was below 50% and soon thereafter was around the 40% area where it has stayed a few days. The line has stayed the same throughout this. Vegas is ok with less money going the Broncos way. They like the Broncos. Broncos.

So in an imaginary world of legalized betting, according to the Obvious Game Go with Vegas Theory, a nice three team parlay versus the spread would be:
Carolina +6.5 over Indy
Miami +9.5 over the Giants
Texans +10 over the Chargers

Standings After Seven Weeks

Post Game Heroes (2) 52-43-8 55%
Curly R (2): 51-44 -8 54%
(vf  50  45 - 8 53%)
CommonPrejudice (1) : 46-49-8 or 48%
Hogs Haven: 41-54-8 or 43%