CommonPrejudice NFL

Hail

Two of the very best made it, one long overdue, the other was always a lock (as Dr.Z says "Every thrown ball was a challenge to him.")

Post Gibbs II

As this isn't my main blog, and I haven't been exactly been blogging up a storm recently anyways, I imagine I'll only post here very occasionally. As the search for a coach continues, I ran across perhaps the best summation of the Gibbs era in the comment thread at Redskins Insider (yes, I know. remarkable).

Look, Gibbs 2.0 was not that great. In fact, it was downright mediocre or worse. But the fact that he was able to craft 2 winning seasons and 2 playoff appearances now seems somewhat amazing. Restoring respect and dignity to the franchise and keeping Danny and Vinny at bay for 4 years is almost as impressive as his 3 SB wins with 3 different QBs. He should get another bust in Canton for this tour of duty. No wonder he seems so happy now!

Posted by: bbake | January 24, 2008 11:42 AM

As Snyder and Vinny bungle along in their quest to destroy any credibility Gibbs had brought back to the franchise, we can only appreciate Gibbs more regardless of the endless botched two-minute drills.  And for the record, I am most definitely not in the Fassel camp. I would like to see Williams get a shot simply for the sake of maintaining what I believed to be a real genuine togetherness the team attained in the last weeks of the enormously trying season. After that maybe Grimm, seemingly a very-well respected coach who, of course, is a big part of the Redskins' tradition.

I'll be back after the Super Bowl. (I see the Giants covering....in other words, bet the house on the Patriots).

For all sad words of tongue and pen, The saddest are these...

Next Year.

They tore my heart out today, but through it all I'm as big a Redskins fan as I have ever been.

21.

We Are Moving On

Mike Lopresti (USA Today):

The New England Patriots might have taken the most glorious and publicized march to the postseason. But nobody — nobody — could possibly appreciate the chance to move forward more than the Redskins.

Unbelievable season for all kinds of reasons.

In the "real world" sports for me has always been a diversion, simply entertainment that distracts you whatever "serious" obstacles your reality presents. Occasionally there are moments when the reality that sports can create manages to transcend entertainment and become genuinely inspirational. This, however, does not happen often. Improbably, today in Redskin nation, we have arrived at such a moment. It's a privilege.

HomeStretch

It's the final day of the season and it has all come down to this.

Come up big today or it's all over.

Yes, everyone is very nervous.

Of course what we all want to see is if Commonprejudice can somehow get out of last place.

The standings heading into week seventeen.

1. Curly R: 129-100-11 or 56.3% with three weekly wins.
2. Post Game Heroes: 123-106-11 or 53.7% with four weekly wins.
3. VikingF : 120-108-11 or 52.6, not in weekly competition.
4. TexSkins: 110-112-11 or 49.5% with two weekly wins.
5. Skin Patrol: 91-110-9 or 45.3% with no weekly wins.
6. CommonPrejudice: 103-126-11 or 45.0% with one weekly win.

And yes we are oh so impressed with Curly R and PGH.  I  haven't quite figured it out yet, but I am sure somehow they have cheated by messing with the space/time continuum.

All right. The skins season is on the line. It has honestly been an astounding season, full of peaks and valleys like no other. I really want this game today - obviously - but more than any other year, this year I am genuinely glad and proud to be a skins fan.

Onto the picks as quickly and painlessly as possible.

NE (-13.5) @ NYG
The pick was Pats.
STL @ ARZ (-6)
Cards
SEA @ ATL (EVEN)
Seahawks
CAR (-3) @ TB
Panthers
CIN (-2.5) @ MIA
Dolphins
SF @ CLE (-12)
Browns
DET @ GB (-5)
Packers
JAX @ HOU (-6.5)
Jaguars
MIN (-3) @ DEN
Vikings
NO (-1.5) @ CHI
Bears
KC @ NYJ (-6)
Jets
BUF @ PHI (-8)
Bills
PIT (-3) @ BAL
Steelers
SD (-8.5) @ OAK
Raiders
TEN (-5) @ IND
Titans
DAL @ WAS (-9)
and just one time, baby....skins

CommonPrejudice wishes everyone the best for the new year.Enjoy the good times while you can. Sometimes they don't last as long as they should.

Happy Holidays

We got what we wanted. A Cowboys game that matters.

HomeStretch

Back to back 8-8s. We have soared to new levels of mediocrity. We are very proud.

And this week another 0-2 hole has been dug.

So we feel it is indeed the appropriate time to panic.

Luckily though we still have some playoff concerns as the Xmas turkey is marinating. Consider the season it has been that is certainly nothing to complain about.

So let's see if we can't pull if all together, astound our foes and actually break the .500 barrier for a week.

(We had previously chosen the Rams and the Cowboys)

Atlanta (+10) at Arizona
I'm actually going to take the Cards despite the outrageous spread. The Falcons are taking the mail-in concept to new lows.

Cleveland (-2.5) at Cincinnati
You're not from Cleveland!! You're from Cincinnati!! ... and that's why you suck. Browns.

Kansas City (+4.5) at Detroit
The Toyota Shitty Teams who created False Expectations Bowl. Lions

Green Bay (-8.5) at Chicago
The Packers have convinced themselves that they are very good. Packers

Houston (+7) at Indy
Let's go with the Texans. Colts will be resting.

Oakland (+13) at Jacksonville
The Raiders can be pesty. Raiders

Washington (+6.5) at Minnesota
Of course we are gong Skins here, but I have to say that six and a half points seems like a ton. Redskins

Miami (+22) at New England
Could they shock the world and save their grumpy 72 brethren? No. But they can cover. Dolphins

Philadelphia (+3) at New Orleans.
Saints (You listening God? I'm taking the Saints....I''ve supremely sucked calling games this year... And I'm taking the Saints...)

New York Giants (-2.5) at Buffalo
Wow. Everybody thinks the Giants are going to fall apart. I don't like it, don't like it a bit. Bills

Baltimore at Seattle (pick'em)
Seahawks easy.

Tampa Bay (-5.5) at San Francisco
Not close. Bucs.

New York Jets (+8.5) at Tennessee
Nothing left in the Jets' tank. Titans

Monday
Denver (+8.5) at San Diego
Another blow out. Chargers.

Play-off Scenario

Playoffs?
Skins lose to Minnesota
Out

Skins beat Minnesota and beat Dallas
In if:
N.O. loses to Philly
OR
N.O. loses to Chicago
OR
Giants lose to Buffalo and lose to New England

Skins beat Minnesota and lose to Dallas
In if:
N.O. loses to Philly and loses to Chicago
AND
Minnesota loses to Denver

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

Here at Commonprejudice we just don't believe being down 21 games in the win column is enough. So, demonstrating our customary generosity we decided to purposely call the first two games this week incorrectly as well. Now, finally, with three weeks left in the season it is time for us to make our charge. Watch out.

Denver -1.5 at Houston
We thought it was Houston all the way so we chose the Broncos
Cincinnati -8 at San Francisco
Of course the Niners were going to win. Duh. So for that reason we took the Bengals.

Now on the Sunday games (Note: CommonPrejudice reserves the right to subsequently claim that these picks too are purposely incorrect)

Baltimore -3.5 at Miami
I think I'm going with Ravens. It's too cute a pick to take the Fins.
Buffalo +5.5 at Cleveland
Game of the Week. Let's go with the points. Bills
Philadelphia +10.5 at Dallas
I don't think Philly shows up this week. Silly Nannies
Green Bay -9.5 at St. Louis
Easy pick. Packers
Indianapolis +10.5 at Oakland
Colts rocking and rolling.
NY Jets +23 at New England
I'm going to claim that the reason I waited so long to make my picks this week was because I was waiting for the last possible weather update from New England (yeah right).
Snow...Freezing rain with a chance of sleet this morning...Then rain likely this afternoon. Precipitation May be heavy at Times this morning. Total accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Windy and not as cool with highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph...Increasing to 20 to 30 mph this afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Jets
Arizona +3.5 at New Orleans
GO CARDS damnit. Saints
Washington +4.5 at NY Giants
I like what I'm hearing about this Collins kid. He could be a star someday.Skins.
Jacksonville +3.5 at Pittsburgh
Really big game for Jacksonville. For that reason let's go with the Jaguars.

Detroit +10 at San Diego
I like Detroit in this game. I mean I really really like Detroit here ....to get blown out. So for old time's sake:

Chargers
Seattle -7.5 at Carolina
Always take the heavy favorite this time of year against teams as demoralized as the Panthers. Seahawks.
Atlanta +13.5 at Tampa Bay
Garcia is back so I will go with the Bucs (but don't be surprised if the Falcons play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder with their coach bolting like that)
Tennessee -4 at Kansas City
I don't see how the Titans don't roll here given the stakes. If they don't they deserve their fate.
Chicago +10 at Minnesota
And speaking of demoralized.... Vikings.

Sometime soon we'll get an updated version of the standings as the Commonprejudice tortoise sprints to the finish line. Now we must attend to some important Commonprejudice business.

Thursday
Chicago +3  at Washington
Skins

Sunday
Miami +7  at Buffalo
Bills

St Louis +6.5 at Cincinnati
Rams

Cleveland  -3 at NYJets
Jets

Dallas  -10.5 at  Detriot
Silly Nannies

Kansas City +6.5 at Denver
Broncos

Oakland +10 Green Bay
Raiders

Indianapolis -9 at Baltimore
Colts

Carolina +10.5 at Jacksonville
Jaguars

Minnesota -9 at San Francisco
Niners

Pittsburgh +10.5 at New England
Patriots

New York Giants +3 at Philadelphia
Eagles

Arizona +7 at Seattle
Cardinals

Tampa Bay -3 at Houston
Bucs

San Diego at Tennessee  Pick'em
Chargers

Monday
New Orleans  -4 at Atlanta
Saints

Extremely late but the my picks are here (I have started to write something re: the tragedy but haven't finished it and it is the kind of thing you want to get right)

so just the picks then:
Sunday
CLE @ ARZ (EVEN)
Browns

SF @ CAR (-3)
Panthers

DEN (-3.5) @ OAK
Broncos

JAX @ IND (-6.5)
Jaguars

NYJ @ MIA (-1)
Dolphins

DET @ MIN (-4)
Lions

TB @ NO (-3.5)
Saints

NYG (-1.5) @ CHI
Bears

SEA @ PHI (-3)
Eagles

CIN @ PIT (-7)
Steelers

SD (-6) @ KC
Chiefs

ATL @ STL (-6)
Cards 

HOU @ TEN (-4)
Titans

BUF @ WAS (-5.5)
Skins

Monday
NE (-20) @ BAL
Patriots

Update at kickoff time:

CommonPrejudice's new slogan:

We don't just pick games, we orchestrate victories.

For the record, Packers over Cowboys tonight. More to follow.

Reality

Given his troubled past and the apparent circumstances it is obvious that this incident will provoke much debate about the man himself as well as on greater social issues. But, of course, today is not the day for that. We just hope he gets better.

Update:

He couldn't make it through the night. Just sad.

Picks, Picks and More Picks

Danger .... Can't talk long .... Must Get in Picks...

San Francisco +10.5 at Arizona
Cards

Denver +1.5 at Chicago
Broncos

Houston +3.5 at Cleveland
Browns

Buffalo +8 at Jacksonville
Bills

Oakland +5.5 Kansas City
Chiefs

Philadelphia +22 at New England
Patriots

New Orleans -3 at Carolina
Panthers

Minnesota +7 at NYGiants
Giants

Baltimore +9.5 at San Diego
Ravens

Seattle  -3 at  St Louis
Rams

Washington +3 at Tampa Bay
Skins

Tennessee -1.5 at Cincinnati
Titans

Monday
Miami -16 at Pittsburgh
Dolphins

Turkey Day Picks

I hope the pressure of having to come to a decision this early in the week doesn't effect this blog's prescient record to date (apparently you Americans have some kind of holiday to celebrate). But despite the atypical circumstances we will valiantly carry on.

NYJets +14 at the Silly Nannies (Now more than ever)
Did anyone else spend sleepless nights imagining Taylor popping Owens?
Silly Nannies

Green Bay-3.5 at Detroit
If the Lions win this they we can say they are legitimate. Until then they are Matt Millen's team.
Packers
(PS Isn't it weird that a Detroit game matters on Turkey Day?)

Indianapolis -11.5 at Atlanta
As good as the Colts are, they will struggle against some teams on the road and not cover. Not today though.
Colts

It's awfully quiet around here.

After another miserable week here at CommonPrejudice - 5-8-1 - sitting nine games under .500 for the season and far back of leader Ben at Curly R who is at 53% for the season. As you can see we've been forced to abandon the offices of our Galactic Headquarters. Now we're going to have run a much more scaled down operation.

Ok, let's turn to some football talk. After all there's no credibility problem here. Nosireee.

Dallas Week
It's hard to recall where I've entered a Cowboys game with less confidence. I simply can't imagine a skins victory. Seeing the defense fall apart in the fourth quarter last week without Taylor against a vastly inferior Eagles team should have every redskin fan this week within arms length of a bottle of their favorite spirit. It's not going to be pretty. Can the skins offense keep up? Virtually any chance rests on the cursed cliche, stranger things have happened. The Redskins best case scenario right now is beating TB, going 6-5, winning three of the next four and playing Dallas in the last game of the year to go 10-6 and make the play-offs.

{{

}}

So
Washington +10.5 at Dallas
What am I supposed to do here? I mean I wouldn't bet a dime on the skins. Being a fan isn't the same as being stupid. It goes without saying I hope I'm wrong.
Cowboys

Carolina +9.5 at Green Bay
The Pack are on a roll.
Packers

New Orleans +1 at Houston
I sense a collapse now by the Saints
Texans

Kansas City +14.5 Indianapolis
Yeah, I'll take that.
Chiefs

San Diego +3 at Jacksonville
Ok I'm bringing it out.

Jaguars

Oakland +5 at Minnesota
I'm going against my better judgement  - which almost certainly is a good thing.
Vikings

New England -16 at Buffalo
Let's have some fun and take the points.
Bills

NY Giants -3) at Detroit
Like everyone we are cheering for the Eli collapse and Eli face.
Lions

Miami +10 at Philadelphia
It wouldn't shock me if Miami shows up here but I wouldn't bet on it.
Eagles

Pittsburgh -9.5 at  NYJets
Steelers big

Chicago +5.5 at Seattle
This is a field goal game
Bears

St Louis -3 at  San Francisco
Niners look horrible
Rams

Tampa Bay -3 at Atlanta
Bucs

Cleveland -3 at Baltimore
Browns

Arizona +3 at Cincinnati
Bengals

Monday
Tennessee +3 at Denver
Are you telling me that these teams are equal?
Titans

So as the Cowboys are running up the score in the 4th quarter I can imagine Gibbs' heroic defiance as he screams at Phillips.

 

Picks

Just the picks for now. Hopefully post something tomorrow morning.

Detroit +1 at Arizona
Lions
Cincinnati +3.5 at Baltimore
Bengals
Buffalo -3 at Miami
BIlls
Atlanta +4 at Carolina
Panthers
Chicago -3.5 at Oakland
Bears
Dallas -1.5 at New York Giants
Silly Nannies
Minnesota +6 at Green Bay
Vikings
Indianapolis -3.5 at San Diego
Colts
Denver +3 at Kansas City
Chiefs
St. Louis +11 at New Orleans
Saints
Cleveland +10 at Pittsburgh
Browns
Jacksonville +4  at Tennessee
Titans
Philadelphia +3 at Washington
Skins
Monday
San Francisco +10 at Seattle
Seahawks

Everything is Just Fine

At Commonprejudice this week we have a scoop. We have obtained an audio tape of a furious Joe Gibbs yelling across the field at the Patriots during last week's game. I hope the language doesn't offend.

-----

Well it was a consistent week last week in the sense that the Vegas theory was every bit as disastrous as the Redskins effort against the Pats.

Nevertheless we must carry on and we shall.

First a note about last week's Skins game. Certainly Belichick was not holding much back as the Pats proceeded to carve up the Skins like Iron Chef Morimoto carves up mackerel sashimi. Sure he's a dick, but we already knew that (Belichick not Morimoto ... then again I have never met Morimoto. I suppose he could be a dick. Great chef, though... uh...sorry)  However, any competitor's response to the kind of pounding the Skins took can not be, 'oh please have mercy on me.' If they are that much better than you are you want to know it, feel it, store that feeling to make sure it never happens again. And you get pissed off at yourself for allowing the humiliation. Then you play harder. Shortly we'll find out what kind of competitors these Redskins are.

But of course there have been far too many crises like this to Skins' fans in recent times. Last Sunday the Redskins were not in the least prepared for the challenge they faced and how many times can you have said that over the last four years? I'm not interested in how great the Patriots are. Good teams simply do lose 52-7, ever. It was an embarrassment. And now, in the wake of this beatdown, Gibbs' words about being the biggest underdog in the history of sports don't sound like a coach and team playing possum but rather a pathetic confession of the reality before the game was even played. I think back to the 80s and it seems inconceivable to me that a Gibbs team could produce such a sad effort when the whole world knew what they were going to be up against. But as they say this isn't your father's Joe Gibbs.

This Jets game Sunday isn't a must-win game. It is a must-dominate game. More than anything though this team has got to show some consistency and some pride for more than one game. And Grandfather Gibbs has got to turn a little hardass.

I'd say wins over the Jets, Eagles at home and at least a real battle against the Silly Nannies on the road would ease my doubts. Short of that I don't see this team as a threat this season. And I see Joe retiring. Of course I hope I'm wrong.

---------

Ok, so I suppose we must return to the task at hand and that is to turn around our own pitiful, disgraceful effort at picking the games. I do want to ensure all 4 of our loyal readers that we remain confident and perfectly fine with everything. We are not the least bit nervous about the fact that our 4-9 last week has put us at 46%, needing to make up ten picks on leader PostGameHeroes and nine games on second place Curly R. It doesn't bother us that we even got beaten handily last week by an oxymoron. (At this point we are not overly concerned with Hogs Haven who sit at 43%. That would be like the Jets worried that the Dolphins are going to catch them. When you are this far down, does it matter?)

So, no. We will not be select our games meekly. We will stride up to the plate confidently.

Ok, maybe not so much.

San Francisco +3.5 at Atlanta
Are you like me? Do you spend sleepless nights wondering what clever ways Joey will come up with to dismantle the strong SF defense.

Niners

Cincinnati  -1 at Buffalo
Every once in a while Palmer will bust out and throw 5 td passes and the Bengals roll. Generally though they suck and the Bills are playing hard.
Bills.

Seattle +1.5 at Cleveland
I never realized what a weak runner Shaun Alexander is. Now we are officially in the Derek Anderson era.
Browns

Dallas -3 at Philadelphia
I will be pulling big time for the Eagles but I don't see it. Btw I came across this pic of the fumbled Romo snap last year. The problem clearly was his grip.

Silly Nannies

Denver +3 at Detroit
So we are on Week 9 and I am can not believe I am typing this. The Lions are the much better team.
Lions

Green Bay +2.5 at Kansas City
How sold are you on this Packers team? Then again how sold are you on this Chiefs team? I'll go with the crowd.
Chiefs

New England -5 at Indianapolis
Blah, blah, blah
Patriots

Jacksonville +3 at New Orleans
Have the Saints turned it around? Not sure, but I think this one will be close and we will take the points.
Jaguars

Houston +3 at Oakland
I don't like the Raiders at all.
Texans

San Diego -7 at Minnesota
I'm convinced now.
Chargers

Arizona +3.5 at Tampa Bay
Instinct says Cardinals. However my instinct about that instinct feels it's wrong.
Bucs

Carolina +4 Tennessee
I don't see how the Titans don't roll here.
Titans

Washington -3.5 at New York Jets
So yeah I like the skins to win this one by seven to ten and and look just ok in doing so. Nothing too inspiring, maybe 17-10.
Redskins

Monday
Baltimore +9 at Pittsburgh
Nine points. Wow. I hate to say it but let's see where the betting is going. Line here is up to ten now, around 60% betting on the Steelers as the line has been climbing all week. Obviously Vegas wants to keep getting Ravens money with the rising spread. At ten points I might bite. At nine let's go with the Steelers.

Overall
1. Post Game Heroes (2 wins): 60-48-8 or 55%
2. Curly R (2 wins): 57-51-8 or 53%
3. TexSkins (1 win): 56-52-8 or 52%
(VF 55-53 - 8 51%)
4. CommonPrejudice (1 win): 50-58-8 or 46%
5. Hogs Haven: 41-54-8 or 43%

Good night and drive safely.

Episode 8 - Changes

It's been a rough week here at C.P. 5-9 were the disheartening totals. So, undeniably changes had to be made. The following image pretty much captures the scene here for most of the week.

You get the idea. So now after the vast staff reduction the board members have come up with a short term plan. There has been one bit of glory in our two week fiasco of incompetence and ineptitude. Two weeks ago, we correctly went with the Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory and won easily with Kansas City. (Based on a theory from the Sports Guy) While it seems you can find a couple of games each week that more or less fit the theory, we have decided to take it one step farther to cover all the games. While we will still use the Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory when it applies, on the other games we will attempt to best determine which way Vegas is leaning according to the line movement and the percentage bet on each team during the week. To sum it up, we're going with Vegas, baby.

[Note most of the comments regard tracking the spread from Monday through Thursday night. Some updates were made Friday afternoon when it seemed relevant. All updates were made before the initial posting. The tracking of the spread and percentage bet on each team can be found here]

Cleveland -3 at St. Louis
73% going with the Browns now, well above 50 almost the entire time while the line doesn't move.
Rams (I hate this theory already)

Detroit +5 at Chicago
Between 60 and 70% have been betting Bears, line hasn't moved. Not a great indicator but I will go the way Vegas is leaning. Friday update. Now it's down to 58% betting Bears with no line movement. I'm rethinking this. Money is drifting away from the Bears but the line stays the same. Really speculating here, but let's say Vegas doesn't mind the money slowing on the Bears even if it is still above 50%.
Lions Bears

Indianapolis -6.5 at Carolina
The line has moved up a half a point, but that was before betting opened. Since then 95/96% have been betting on Indy. Obviously Vegas is comfortable with that.
Panthers

NY G-Girls -9.5  at Miami
Without a doubt the Obvious Game Theory Modified By The Going With Vegas When They Don't Move the Line Even If More Than 80% Of The Public Are Betting One Way Theory Game Two.

Giants opened at ten. Went down to 9.5 right away, yes down a half a point, while since almost the beginning well above 90% have been betting Giants (92% currently). Vegas loves Miami.
Dolphins

Oakland +7.5 at Tennessee
Here the line has gone from 9 to 7.5 with the percentage betting on Tennessee going down slowly from high 70's to low 60s. But the spread went from 9 to 7 immediately, then back to nine where it stayed while 65% approximately bet on the Titans. Then all of the sudden the line jumps back to 7.5. Excuse the real football talk, but was there an injury announced around 2 o'clock today(thursday)? Overall though a tough one to read, I'd say at first Vegas wanted less people to bet on the Titans, accomplished that and were happy to let it ride. Then a sudden change of heart, though it is still too early to see what the betting trend will be now.  This one needs another day, though it seems the Titans are the pick.
Update Friday afternoon: A little more football talk. Vince Young is in fact playing yet the percentage betting on the Titans has fallen to 51%. The line going back down to 7.5 didn't make more people bet on the Titans, in fact less are. The quick move back down to 7.5 would seem to indicate that Vegas didn't want that to happen. So very hesitantly I take the Raiders (ie Vegas as well as the betting trend)

Philadelphia  -1 at Minnesota
Line hasn't moved. Despite this betting trend has shifted 50-60% Minny in the beginning to a couple of days of 55% Philly. A true pick'em.  If betting were legal this would be one to stay away from. Because I have to pick one, let's say that Vegas doesn't mind money gravitating to Philly and take the Vikings.

Pittsburgh -3.5 at Cincinnati
Interesting one here. Initially 90% bet on the Steelers, since then it has been a steady high 60's. The line jumped from -1 before betting to -3.5 as the bets started being tracked. It went another half a point to 4 for a couple of days - as the betting was in the low 70's for Pitt. Now it was dropped a half a point to 3.5 again. Vegas seemed a little worried that too much was, or would, go down on Pitt. There are Ok with it at 65% but that isn't a high percentage for a team that should be a lot better than the Bengals. A long story short - Vegas isn't showing confidence in the Bengals covering the spread. Steelers.

Buffalo +3 at NY Jets
Line hasn't moved. Money started out immediately on the Jets then has fallen to high 30's, low 40s the last couple of days. With almost 70% first going the Jets way for the first evening then by the following morning dropping to 35% and staying there, you would have to think Vegas is comfortable with the turn of events. Jets

Houston +10 at San Diego

No Line movement. 80% going with the Chargers since opening. Go with Vegas baby. Texans

(While this is all in fun, CommonPrejudice would like to salute those battling the brutal fires in the San Diego region)

POST POSTING UPDATE: Apparently the line reverts to a pick'em if the time and place is in doubt, which it has been. However the news has now come out that the game will be played in San Diego at the regular hour. I imagine by tonight the line will be reposted. While all kinds of intangibles are now in play, we will stick with the Texans pick at +10.

Jacksonville +4 at Tampa Bay

A little line movement mostly between 4.5 and 4. Betting pattern is constant at 55% betting on TB. The line has now gone to 3.5 after a long time at 4, maybe trying to draw some more Bucs money. Jaguars

New Orleans -3 at San Francisco
Money has mostly gone down on New Orleans (mid 70%). Line hasn't moved (at least according to the graph - there seems to be a misprint on the main page saying -1). So this is a poor bettor's OGTMBTGWVWTDMT8OTPABOWT.
Niners

Washington -16.5 at New England
The public is betting around 70% on average on the Pats (very low for them). As of late it has dropped into the sixties. The line has gone up a half a point, meaning Vegas didn't really like so much going on the Pats. Which would mean that the Going with Vegas theory calls for the Pats.
AYFKM. Yes I am taking the Skins. This theory can't be a rule without an exception.

Green Bay +3  at Denver (Monday)
Opened at +1. Moved right away to +3 before betting. The betting trend has gone early towards the Broncos in the high sixties but less than 24 hours later was below 50% and soon thereafter was around the 40% area where it has stayed a few days. The line has stayed the same throughout this. Vegas is ok with less money going the Broncos way. They like the Broncos. Broncos.

So in an imaginary world of legalized betting, according to the Obvious Game Go with Vegas Theory, a nice three team parlay versus the spread would be:
Carolina +6.5 over Indy
Miami +9.5 over the Giants
Texans +10 over the Chargers

Standings After Seven Weeks

Post Game Heroes (2) 52-43-8 55%
Curly R (2): 51-44 -8 54%
(vf  50  45 - 8 53%)
CommonPrejudice (1) : 46-49-8 or 48%
Hogs Haven: 41-54-8 or 43%